Economic statement
Average house prices in Scotland increased by 5.6% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to February 2024. This was up from 4.2% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to January 2024 and was higher than the average UK house price annual inflation of negative 0.2% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to February 2024.
Scotland’s annual inflation rate rose in February 2024 because average house prices were falling more steeply between January and February 2023 than between January and February 2024. The rise in Scotland’s annual inflation rate in recent months is more reflective of Scotland’s average house price falling this time last year, rather than increasing in recent months. This is known as a base effect (as explained in ONS’ Beware base effects article). Scotland’s average house price fell in winter 2022/23, reaching a low point in February 2023. Scotland’s average house price returned to mid-2022 price levels by mid-2023and has since remained comparatively stable.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 0.6% between January 2024 and February 2024, compared with a decrease of 1.8% during the same period 12 months ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland increased by 1.1% between January 2024 and February 2024.
Comparing the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for December 2022 with the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for December 2023, the volume of transactions decreased by 7.6% in Scotland and by 42.3% in the UK.
In Scotland, detached houses showed the highest annual percentage change out of all property types, increasing by 7.3% in the 12 months to February 2024 to £338,000. Terraced houses showed the lowest annual percentage change, which increased by 4.7% in the 12 months to February 2024 to an average price of £157,000.
The highest annual percentage change was in Inverclyde, where average house prices increased by 13.8% in the 12 months to February 2024 to £127,000. The lowest annual percentage change was in Argyll and Bute, where average house prices decreased by 1.9% in the 12 months to February 2024 to £186,000.
As with other indicators in the housing market, which typically fluctuate from month to month, it is important not to put too much weight on one month’s set of house price data.
