Executive summary
- House price inflation has slowed from 9.6% to -1.1% over the last year
- 4 in 5 housing markets are registering small annual price falls
- Regulation of mortgage lending has built market resilience to higher mortgage rates although household buying power remains lower
- Transactions have been hit hardest and will be 23% lower than 2022
- First-time buyers and cash buyers account for 2 in 3 sales in 2023
- Low price falls and 5% mortgage rates mean housing is still expensive
- We expect UK house prices to fall 2% over 2024 as rising incomes steadily repair housing affordability
- 2024 is set for another year of 1m sales. This could be higher if mortgage rates fall back towards 4% sooner than expected in 2024
