Executive summary
- Annual UK house price inflation slows to +0.6%
- Modest annual price falls of up to -2.2% concentrated in southern England and markets with an average price over £300,000
- Affordable markets in economically active areas still registering annual house price inflation of over 3.5%
- Higher mortgage rates have reduced demand by 18% in last 2 months
- Rise in mortgage rates appears close to peaking – likely to return to the 4-5% window this autumn. The key risk is higher rates for longer
- Resumption of modest price falls expected in H2 2023, concentrated across southern England in response to higher mortgage rates.
- UK prices still on track to be up to 5% lower over 2023
